Excel Forecasting to Drive Channel Expansion

Overview

A US-based education client at Hanapin Marketing wanted to increase revenue and enrollment by scaling their digital ad campaigns. However, their current top-performing channels were nearing saturation—additional investment would only yield diminishing returns. To grow further, the client needed a new strategy backed by data, not guesswork.

My Role

As Senior Paid Social Account Manager, I led a cross-functional team managing paid media strategy and execution. I was responsible for identifying growth opportunities, forecasting performance, and guiding clients on where to invest for maximum return.

What I Did

  • Used historical performance data to build an Excel-based forecasting model, incorporating:
    • Volume and reach of target audience
    • Conversion rates
    • Budget impact on marginal CPL
  • Identified diminishing returns in the client’s primary channels and modeled projections for a new platform targeting a similar audience.
  • Demonstrated how diversifying spend could increase overall volume without dramatically increasing CPL or CAC.
  • Collaborated with the client to develop relevant messaging tailored to the new channel’s audience and format.
  • Launched a pilot campaign and measured against modeled expectations, refining strategy in real time.

Impact

  • The client successfully expanded into a new channel, allowing them to increase spend while maintaining acceptable acquisition costs.
  • The forecast model built trust and confidence with senior decision-makers, ensuring leadership support for the test.
  • This project became a template for future expansion forecasting across other accounts at the agency.

Tools & Skills

  • Advanced Excel (forecast modeling, regression, scenario planning)
  • Paid media platforms (Google, Facebook, LinkedIn, Quora)
  • Conversion rate optimization
  • Client communication & change management
  • Strategic budgeting and channel analysis
  • Performance benchmarking